How far off is a tail to tell ff16Groupon, Inc. (

NASDAQ:GRPN

) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the

Simply Wall St analysis model

.

See our latest analysis for Groupon

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$122.8m

US$190.4m

US$212.0m

US$220.1m

US$231.5m

US$240.3m

US$247.9m

US$254.7m

US$260.9m

US$266.7m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x4

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Est @ 3.78%

Est @ 3.17%

Est @ 2.74%

Est @ 2.44%

Est @ 2.23%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11%

US$111

US$155

US$156

US$146

US$139

US$130

US$121

US$112

US$104

US$95.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)

= US$1.3b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Story continues

Terminal Value (TV)

= FCF

2029

× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$267m× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ 11%– 1.7%) = US$3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)

= TV / (1 + r)

10

= US$3.0b÷ ( 1 + 11%)

10

= US$1.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.3b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$2.4, the company appears quite good value at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NasdaqGS:GRPN Intrinsic value, January 1st 2020

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Groupon as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.669. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Groupon, I've put together three important factors you should further examine:

Financial Health

: Does GRPN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our

free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks

on key factors like leverage and risk.

Future Earnings

: How does GRPN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our

free analyst growth expectation chart

.

Other High Quality Alternatives

: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of GRPN? Explore

our interactive list of high quality stocks

to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just

search here

.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at

[email protected]

. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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